New Hampshire primary
The
New Hampshire primary is the opening gun of the quadrennial
U.S. presidential election. Since 1952
New Hampshire has gained international attention for its presidential primaries. They are major testing grounds for candidates for the Republican and Democratic nominations. Candidates who do poorly usually have to drop out. Little known, underfunded candidates who do well suddenly become contenders, as they gain huge amounts of media attention and money. The media give New Hampshire (and Iowa) about half of all the attention paid to all states in the primary process, magnifying the state's decision power. This has spurred repeated efforts by out-of-state Democrats to change the rules and by other states to try to attain the status of being the first primary in the nation.[Scala 2003]
Since
1977,
New Hampshire law has stated that its primary is to be the first in the nation. As a result, the state has had to move its primary, originally in March, earlier in the year to remain the first. For example, the primary was held on
February 20 in
1996, then
February 1 in
2000, and
January 27 in
2004 to compete with earlier primaries in other states.
Before the less-binding
Iowa caucus first received national attention in the 1970s, the New Hampshire primary was the first binding indication of which presidential candidate would receive his political party's nomination. In defense of their primary, voters of New Hampshire have tended to downplay the importance of the Iowa caucus. "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents," said then-Governor
John H. Sununu in 1988.
Since then, the primary has been considered an early measurement of the national attitude toward the candidates for nomination. Unlike a
caucus, the
primary measures the number of votes each candidate received directly, rather than through precinct delegates. The fact that the primary is based on the
popular vote means that it gives less well known candidates a chance to pull ahead. Unlike most other states, New Hampshire permits independents, not just party members, to vote in a party's primary.
New Hampshire's status as the first-in-the-nation is somewhat controversial among Democrats because liberals consider the state too white and too conservative; 2000 Census data show it is 96% white versus 75% nationally. Politically however, the state does offer a wide sampling of different types of voters. Although it is a
New England state, it is not as
liberal as some of its neighbors, (e.g.
Massachusetts). For example, according to one exit poll, of those who participated in the 2004 Democratic Primary, 4 in 10 voters were independents, and just over 50% said they considered themselves "liberal." Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered
Democrats and 36.7% are
Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared"
independents. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a
swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.
Recently,
media expectations for the New Hampshire primary have come to be almost as important as the results themselves; meeting or beating expectations can provide a candidate with national attention, often leading to an infusion of donations to a campaign that has spent most of its reserves. For example, in 1992,
Bill Clinton, although he did not win, did surprisingly well, with his team dubbing him the "Comeback Kid"; the extra media attention helped drive him to victory in later primaries.
New Hampshire's political importance as the first in the nation primary state is hilighted in the documentary film
Winning New Hampshire. The film focuses on
John Kerry's comeback in 2004 and the decisive effect of the New Hampshire Primary on the Presidential selection process.
New Hampshire has held a presidential primary since 1916, but it did not begin to assume its current importance until 1952, when
Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated his broad voter appeal by defeating
Robert A. Taft, "Mr. Republican," who had been favored for the nomination, and
Estes Kefauver defeated incumbent President
Harry S. Truman, leading him to abandon his campaign for a third term.
The other President to be forced from running for re-election by New Hampshire voters was
Lyndon Johnson, who, as a
write-in candidate, managed only a 49-42 percent victory over
Eugene McCarthy in 1968 (and won fewer delegates than McCarthy), and consequently withdrew from the race.[
1] Before 1992 the person elected president had always carried the primary, but
Bill Clinton broke the pattern in 1992, as did
George W. Bush in 2000. Moreover, the winner in New Hampshire has not always gone to win his party's nomination, as demonstrated by Republicans
John McCain in 2000 and
Pat Buchanan in 1996.
Following the 2004 presidential election, some elements in the
Democratic Party proposed new primary calendars that would end the New Hampshire's first in the nation status. The Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling issued a report at the end of 2005, recommending adding several caucuses to come before New Hampshire's primary. The recommendations would need to be approved by the full Democratic National Committee before they could take effect. However, New Hampshire state law requires the primary to take place seven days before any other "similar contest," which state officials have always interpreted to mean any contest other than Iowa's caucus. The Republican Party, meanwhile, has maintained its support of the current primary calendar.
*
Palmer, Niall A. The New Hampshire Primary and the American Electoral Process (1997)* Brereton Charles.
First in the Nation: New Hampshire and the Premier Presidential Primary. Portsmouth, NH: Peter E. Randall Publishers, 1987.
* Casey Susan B.
Hart and Soul: Gary Hart's New Hampshire Odyssey and Beyond. Concord, NH: NHI Press, 1986.
* Cash Kevin.
Who the Hell Is William Loeb? Manchester, NH: Amoskeag Press, 1975.
* Scala, Dante J.
Stormy Weather : The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics (2003)
Notes: Winner is listed first. Candidates in bold went on to win their party's nomination.Democrats
*2004:
John F. Kerry defeated
Howard B. Dean III,
Joe Lieberman and
Wesley Clark, among others
*2000:
Albert A. Gore Jr. defeated
William W. Bradley*1996:
William J. Clinton (no serious opposition)
*1992:
Paul E. Tsongas defeated
William J. Clinton*1988:
Michael S. Dukakis defeated
Richard A. "Dick" Gephardt*1984:
Gary W. Hart defeated
Walter F. "Fritz" Mondale*1980:
James E. Carter Jr. defeated
Edward M. Kennedy*1976:
James E. Carter Jr. defeated
Morris K. Udall*1972:
Edmund S. Muskie defeated
George S. McGovern*1968:
Lyndon B. Johnson defeated
Eugene J. "Gene" McCarthy*1964:
Lyndon B. Johnson (no serious opposition)
*1960:
John F. Kennedy (no serious opposition)
*1956:
C. Estes Kefauver defeated
Adlai E. Stevenson II*1952:
C. Estes Kefauver defeated
Harry S. Truman*1948:
Unpledged delegates*1944:
Unpledged delegates*1940:
Unpledged delegates*1936:
Unpledged delegates*1932:
Unpledged delegates*1928:
Unpledged delegates*1924:
Unpledged delegates*1920:
Unpledged delegates*1916:
T. Woodrow Wilson (unopposed)
Republicans
*2004:
George W. Bush (no serious opposition)
*2000:
John McCain defeated
George W. Bush*1996:
Pat Buchanan defeated
Bob Dole*1992:
George H. W. Bush defeated
Pat Buchanan*1988:
George H. W. Bush defeated
Bob Dole*1984:
Ronald Reagan (no serious opposition)
*1980:
Ronald Reagan defeated
George H. W. Bush*1976:
Gerald Ford defeated
Ronald Reagan*1972:
Richard Nixon defeated
Paul Norton McCloskey, Jr.*1968:
Richard Nixon defeated
Nelson Rockefeller*1964:
Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. defeated
Barry Goldwater*1960:
Richard Nixon (no serious opposition)
*1956:
Dwight Eisenhower (no serious opposition)
*1952:
Dwight Eisenhower defeated
Robert A. Taft*1948:
Unpledged delegates*1944:
Unpledged delegates*1940:
Unpledged delegates*1936:
Unpledged delegates*1932:
Unpledged delegates*1928:
Unpledged delegates*1924:
Calvin Coolidge (unopposed)
*1920:
Leonard Wood defeated
Hiram Johnson*1916:
Unpledged delegatesSources:
Union-Leader (
Manchester, NH), CNN,
New Hampshire Department of StateSources: Concord Monitor,
New Hampshire Department of State, [
2], [
3], [
4]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|
| Al Gore | 76,681 | 52 | 13 |
| Bill Bradley | 69,933 | 48 | 9 |
| Other | 1,184 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 147,798 | 100 | 22 (of 27) |
Source: CNN
Source: CNN
Winning New Hampshire, a film on the history and significance of the NH Primary, 2004
*
The New Hampshire Political Library*
2004 primary results (CNN)
*
2000 primary results (CNN)
*http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/7812403.htm
*http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/09/powerlines-meyerson.php
